Summer Update

So, it's been a rather eventful summer in current events. I'm not sure I still agree with the picks I made below on the Veeps that Obama and McCain will choose. I mean, I'm pretty sure McCain's pick is what I predicted, but not Obama's.
That just shows how this summer has been: some things have surprised us, but some things have been perfectly predictable. We were shocked and saddened when Tim Russert died. But while we were blown-away by China's impressive Olympics display the first night, who couldn't guess that China wouldn't go all-out with the Olympics that's been billed as its "coming-out party"?
For me, it hasn't been a particularly eventful summer. I had a good graduation party, I got to re-unite with some old friends, and de-stress after two years of the IB diploma running my life (and two years before prepping for it). I got decent IB scores, and won another writing contest.
But now I'm going off to college, which means I should have a bit more to write about, as there will be likely more things going on in my life. Stay tuned!!!

Election Update #1: The Forgotten Race - for Vice President

Okay, so now that each party has its presidential nominee (Obama for the Democrats and McCain for the Republicans, if you've been living under a rock all year), it's time for the nominees to start considering running mates. You may consider this a light decision compared with all the other decisions the candidates have been wrestling with, but from what I've observed, it may be one of the most important decisions a candidate makes. And that is why, every year, the candidates spend so much time making it.

You see, while most people have probably already decided which candidate they're going to vote for (and I think my profile pic makes pretty obvious the decision I've made) there are many who are waiting to see who the vice presidential nominees are before they make their decision. This is especially true with the Republican race, since let's be honest: The probability that McCain, with all his health problems, might keel over during his presidency is somewhat high. Obama is young so his death isn't a worry - but he's more provocative (in terms of what he says, not what he wears, you gutter-mind you!) than other recent Democratic nominees, so a lot are waiting to see if he's going to pick someone who is different from him or more of the same. Many also feel that since his race for the nomination against Clinton has gone on so long with so much bitterness, he's almost required to pick her.

Taking all this into consideration, here are my predictions for who the two senators vying for the presidency will choose as their running-mates:

THE DEMOCRATS

I think the likelihood of an Obama-Clinton ticket has been blown out of proportion. Sure, he wants to pick up on Clinton's key supporter groups, but the polls indicate that he already has. According to the latest Gallup polls (see their Election 2008 page here) Obama has a substantial lead among women, smaller leads among older women, Catholics, and blue-collar workers, and a humongous lead among Hispanics (in the 70s!), all of which were key Clinton voting blocks. It's obvious that the threats among Clinton-backers to flock to McCain were all talk and nothing more (and why wouldn't they be? Clinton and Obama differ on very few issues, while McCain has been constantly trying to push himself further right throughout the entire election).
However, Obama has been perceived as more left-wing than Clinton (and he is, but not as much as he's made out to be) because of the fact that he's been willing to make risky comments that she hasn't. I think it is most likely that Obama will pick a centrist in his party who is known for reaching across the party line for his VP, and Clinton is too controversial a pick to shore up the independents and moderate-Republicans. Some people who have been proposed that seem likely choices to me include Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) and Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), among others. While many have proposed that he'd choose other former contestants for the nomination such as John Edwards and Bill Richardson, or a former Democratic presidential nominee like Al Gore or John Kerry, I think it is much more likely that we'll see these people as cabinet members rather than as veep in the Obama administration (Edwards as Attorney General and Gore as Secretary of Energy, perhaps?).

THE REPUBLICANS

McCain's struggle is opposite that of Obama. He is fine with moderates in his party and with independents, but needs to pick up the hard-line conservatives (something he still hasn't managed to do even after giving up pretty much every ounce of integrity he had by switching his positions on most issues to appear more conservative). The threats more conservative Republicans made to stay home this election if McCain got the nomination actually do seem like ones that could hurt McCain's chances at the presidency. And many "moderate Republicans" belong more in the libertarian camp, a camp McCain is likely to lose regardless of his VP choice because his pro-Iraq War stance contradicts the libertarian platform (just look at how much the former Ron Paul-ites hate him). McCain is going to want to pick someone who is seen as a more traditional conservative in order to gain the full support of his party. Here, I think that Mitt Romney seems the most likely choice. Unlike Obama, McCain actually had some ideological differences with his biggest opponent in the nomination race, and many of Romney's supporters are still fairly bitter about McCain beating out their candidate. McCain could also go for Mike Huckabee in order to win the evangelical vote (he's still having trouble gaining their support in light of the "agents of intolerance" comment he made several years ago) but that's unlikely. Huckabee has support pretty much exclusively in the evangelical camp (other traditional conservatives distrust him) and the group's influence over the party is less than it was 4 years ago. Others have proposed that he might choose Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) but I think that's less likely than pundits have made it to be. It's hard to see Republicans voting for a candidate who was raised in the Hindu faith (Jindal converted to Catholicism as a teenager) and it's likely that Jindal could suffer from the same suspicions about his religious beliefs than currently plague Obama (especially seeing as these attacks are coming from far-right bloggers, a group that McCain hasn't fully gained the trust of yet). McCain is going to want to pick someone who will keep his campaign free of such negative propaganda. However, Jindal is still a serious contender for the Republican VP nomination; I would not be surprised if McCain chose him, although I still think Romney is more likely.

THE FINAL PICKS

My final prediction is that Obama will choose Senator Webb for his VP nomination and McCain will choose Governor Romney. And no, I'm not betting any money, but you are free to make your own VP betting pool with your friends (the nerdy alternative to March Madness and Super Bowl pools!).

Job Searching Sucks!

You know what sucks about the economy being in a downturn (among many, many other things)? It's pretty much impossible to find a summer job - even if you're just an eighteen-year-old looking for money for college rather than someone actually looking for a permanent career. In fact, that makes it a whole lot harder.

I've now filled out about 20 job applications, and none of the places I've applied seem interested. Part of it is the fact that I've never worked any job other than babysitting before (which, when the task consists of folding shirts or stuffing teddy bears, I don't see why that is such a problem). I don't get why applying to some crappy retail job at the mall - the typical first job for your average 16-to-18-year-old - should require me to have a 5-page-long resume.

Furthermore, it seems that the fact that I'm going away to college keeps me from getting the job I want. Despite the fact that I've been told my whole life to go to the best college for me and it will get me ahead in life, that doesn't seem to apply to summer jobs. Nobody wants someone who will leave in the fall. My friend even had to lie and say she was going to a local school in order to get the job she wanted, when she's actually going away to college. She has to deal with an incensed boss at the end of the summer when she informs them that she's actually quitting to continue her education.

I know I should be more understanding, but I feel like some of these companies have a bit of an "ego problem." Why does Build-A-Bear expect me to work there for at least a year and to be able to put as much time into it as possible? I've been there; no one works there who is above the age of 20 and not in school regularly, except the manager. Why does Skechers - yes, Skechers, a fucking shoe store with a misspelled name for crying out loud - require that you have at least a year's previous experience at another company and be 18? What tasks are so demanding about a job selling shoes that a 16-year-old who has never worked before can't do? It's not like I'm applying to work for the Census Bureau here. You're, again, a fucking shoe store.

20 places I've applied and I haven't gotten any calls. None! And what is so awful that they won't hire me? Because I haven't worked with a regular salary before (for jobs selling shirts, pizza, and toys) and because - God forbid - I'm going to continue my education, and it's at a better school than the crappy options available in my hometown!