Okay, so now that each party has its presidential nominee (Obama for the Democrats and McCain for the Republicans, if you've been living under a rock all year), it's time for the nominees to start considering running mates. You may consider this a light decision compared with all the other decisions the candidates have been wrestling with, but from what I've observed, it may be one of the most important decisions a candidate makes. And that is why, every year, the candidates spend so much time making it.
You see, while most people have probably already decided which candidate they're going to vote for (and I think my profile pic makes pretty obvious the decision I've made) there are many who are waiting to see who the vice presidential nominees are before they make their decision. This is especially true with the Republican race, since let's be honest: The probability that McCain, with all his health problems, might keel over during his presidency is somewhat high. Obama is young so his death isn't a worry - but he's more provocative (in terms of what he says, not what he wears, you gutter-mind you!) than other recent Democratic nominees, so a lot are waiting to see if he's going to pick someone who is different from him or more of the same. Many also feel that since his race for the nomination against Clinton has gone on so long with so much bitterness, he's almost required to pick her.
Taking all this into consideration, here are my predictions for who the two senators vying for the presidency will choose as their running-mates:
THE DEMOCRATS
I think the likelihood of an Obama-Clinton ticket has been blown out of proportion. Sure, he wants to pick up on Clinton's key supporter groups, but the polls indicate that he already has. According to the latest Gallup polls (see their Election 2008 page here) Obama has a substantial lead among women, smaller leads among older women, Catholics, and blue-collar workers, and a humongous lead among Hispanics (in the 70s!), all of which were key Clinton voting blocks. It's obvious that the threats among Clinton-backers to flock to McCain were all talk and nothing more (and why wouldn't they be? Clinton and Obama differ on very few issues, while McCain has been constantly trying to push himself further right throughout the entire election).
However, Obama has been perceived as more left-wing than Clinton (and he is, but not as much as he's made out to be) because of the fact that he's been willing to make risky comments that she hasn't. I think it is most likely that Obama will pick a centrist in his party who is known for reaching across the party line for his VP, and Clinton is too controversial a pick to shore up the independents and moderate-Republicans. Some people who have been proposed that seem likely choices to me include Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) and Senator Bob Casey (D-PA), among others. While many have proposed that he'd choose other former contestants for the nomination such as John Edwards and Bill Richardson, or a former Democratic presidential nominee like Al Gore or John Kerry, I think it is much more likely that we'll see these people as cabinet members rather than as veep in the Obama administration (Edwards as Attorney General and Gore as Secretary of Energy, perhaps?).
THE REPUBLICANS
McCain's struggle is opposite that of Obama. He is fine with moderates in his party and with independents, but needs to pick up the hard-line conservatives (something he still hasn't managed to do even after giving up pretty much every ounce of integrity he had by switching his positions on most issues to appear more conservative). The threats more conservative Republicans made to stay home this election if McCain got the nomination actually do seem like ones that could hurt McCain's chances at the presidency. And many "moderate Republicans" belong more in the libertarian camp, a camp McCain is likely to lose regardless of his VP choice because his pro-Iraq War stance contradicts the libertarian platform (just look at how much the former Ron Paul-ites hate him). McCain is going to want to pick someone who is seen as a more traditional conservative in order to gain the full support of his party. Here, I think that Mitt Romney seems the most likely choice. Unlike Obama, McCain actually had some ideological differences with his biggest opponent in the nomination race, and many of Romney's supporters are still fairly bitter about McCain beating out their candidate. McCain could also go for Mike Huckabee in order to win the evangelical vote (he's still having trouble gaining their support in light of the "agents of intolerance" comment he made several years ago) but that's unlikely. Huckabee has support pretty much exclusively in the evangelical camp (other traditional conservatives distrust him) and the group's influence over the party is less than it was 4 years ago. Others have proposed that he might choose Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA) but I think that's less likely than pundits have made it to be. It's hard to see Republicans voting for a candidate who was raised in the Hindu faith (Jindal converted to Catholicism as a teenager) and it's likely that Jindal could suffer from the same suspicions about his religious beliefs than currently plague Obama (especially seeing as these attacks are coming from far-right bloggers, a group that McCain hasn't fully gained the trust of yet). McCain is going to want to pick someone who will keep his campaign free of such negative propaganda. However, Jindal is still a serious contender for the Republican VP nomination; I would not be surprised if McCain chose him, although I still think Romney is more likely.
THE FINAL PICKS
My final prediction is that Obama will choose Senator Webb for his VP nomination and McCain will choose Governor Romney. And no, I'm not betting any money, but you are free to make your own VP betting pool with your friends (the nerdy alternative to March Madness and Super Bowl pools!).
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